Fair handeln

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In vielen afrikanischen Ländern herrscht Armut, ihre Einwohner sehnen sich nach einem besseren Leben – und flüchten. Schaffen neue Handelsabkommen Abhilfe?

Gastbeitrag für das Magazin enkelfähig zusammen mit Clara Weinhardt

Seit 15 Jahren verhandelt die Europäische Union mit Ländern in Afrika, der Karibik und dem Pazifik über Wirtschaftspartnerschaftsabkommen (EPAs). Viele afrikanische Handelspartner befürchten jedoch Nachteile aus der eigenen Marktöffnung. 2014 wurden zwar mehrere regionale EPAs in Afrika unterzeichnet; die Kontroversen reißen jedoch nicht ab. Aus Sorge um die eigene Industrialisierung weigern sich Staaten wie Nigeria und Tansania, die bereits verhandelten Abkommen zu ratifizieren.

Und tatsächlich können sie sich in einigen Bereichen negativ auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung auswirken. Dabei sind weniger die Handelsgrenzen der EU das Problem, denn die Abkommen sehen weitgehende Zollsenkungen vor. Risiken birgt stattdessen die Marktöffnung, zu der sich die afrikanischen Partner im Gegenzug verpflichten.

Schokolade statt Kakaobohnen

Der Abbau eigener Handelsgrenzen verspricht zwar günstigere Importe, ver­ringert aber das Exportpotenzial. Der flexible Einsatz protektionistischer Maßnahmen, wie etwa Steuern, wäre für afrikanische Länder deshalb wichtig, um eine Marktöffnung mit der gezielten Förderung einzelner Sektoren zu verbinden, deren Wertschöpfungspoten­zial hoch ist. Wertschöpfung bedeutet: anstelle von Rohstoffen wie Zucker oder Kakaobohnen weiterverarbeitete Produkte wie Schokolade zu exportieren, deren Marktwert um ein Vielfaches höher liegt.

EPAs erschweren es jedoch, Steuern auf den Export von Gütern wie Rohstoffen einzusetzen. Äthiopien zum Beispiel hat diese in der Vergangenheit erfolgreich als Anreiz für eine Weiterentwicklung der eigenen Lederindus­trie genutzt. (Dazu hier mehr von mir – FB.) Viele afrikanische Länder haben dennoch ein EPA abgeschlossen, insbesondere um dem drohenden Verlust von zollfreiem Marktzugang in die EU zu entgehen.

Die EU betont, dass die EPAs im Vergleich zu anderen Handelsabkommen weiter reichende Schutzklauseln und Ausnahmen enthalten. Das ist richtig, kann aber nicht in allen Fällen die Risiken auffangen. Zwar konnten die afrikanischen Staaten rund 20 Prozent des Handelsvolumens von der Marktöffnung ausnehmen; diese Ausnahmen betreffen vor allem landwirtschaftliche Produkte.

Doch in Zukunft könnte es für viele afrikanische Staaten sinnvoller sein, Produkte der weiterverarbeitenden Industrie zu schützen. Die Länder, die ein EPA unterschrieben haben, sollten bei der Umsetzung darauf drängen, dass die angekündigte Überprüfung der Abkommen tatsächlich verwirklicht wird. Auf diese Weise ließen sich bei negativen Auswirkungen zumindest Anpassungen anmahnen.

Afrikanische Regierungen sind gefordert

Es wäre jedoch zu einfach, die EPAs zum zentralen Entwicklungshindernis der afrikanischen Partner zu stilisieren. Die individuellen nationalen Rahmenbedingungen spielen eine zentrale Rolle für wirtschaftliches Wachstum und soziale Gerechtigkeit. Viele Regierungen haben ihren eigenen Spielraum in der Vergangenheit nicht genutzt. Mit anderen Worten: Die afrikanischen Länder müssen auch eigene soziale, politische und wirtschaftliche Reformen initiieren und umsetzen.

Die Grundidee der EPAs, handelspolitische Reformen anzuregen, ist zukunftsweisend, aber der Impuls für eine strategische Neuausrichtung einer nationalen Ökonomie kann nicht von außen kommen. Viele afrikanische Regionen sind gerade erst dabei, eine eigene handelspolitische Strategie zu entwickeln. Der Druck der EU, die Abkommen dennoch abzuschließen, könnte somit kontraproduktive Auswirkungen haben, weil einige Länder schlicht noch nicht dazu bereit sind.

Fair handeln

Global Trends in Regime Development and Democratisation

I recently worked with a few fascinating datasets that describe the transformation and democratisation of national governments over the last decades. Based on this very comprehensive data, this post discusses important trends in global regime development from 1972 to 2015 and also provides a few more detailed graphs for Africa, which is the focus of my current research for the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA). See here for some of my previous work at GIGA.

As the data below shows, the global political landscape has changed significantly over the last decades. A large majority of countries made considerable progress in liberalising their political systems and establishing democratic institutions. Regularly scheduled and increasingly competitive elections have become the norm and most countries are now governed by constitutions that are – at least on paper – more or less democratic. However, authoritarian rule has persisted or reappeared in many regions of the world and this has led to different trajectories in regime development. Some seasoned observers even argue that democratic progress has slowed significantly and that the last wave of democratisation might now be succeeded by a long phase of stagnation and decline.

RegimeDevelGlobalBase

Source: Own calculation based on the variable ‘regime1ny’ in Wahman, Teorell, and Hadenius (2013); see their codebook (and below) for more information on the data. 

The figure above summarises the changes in the type of government for a large majority of countries between 1972 and 2010. In particular, it shows the slow but steady increase in the number of democracies, highlights the sudden post-Cold War transformation from one-party to multiparty regimes and hints towards the stagnation of democratic progress over the last decade.

Comparing this with ‘raw’ data from the Freedom House Index (FHI, on which the categorisation in Wahman, Teorell, and Hadenius (2013) is partly based), we can identify similar trends when it comes to both civil liberties and political rights. In the FHI, a country is assigned two ratings each year – one for political rights and one for civil liberties. Each is rated between 1 and 7, with 1 representing the greatest degree of freedom (!) and 7 the smallest degree of freedom. Below you find what is called a ‘violin plot’ that summarises the development in both ratings for the FHI. The figure shows the distribution of cases from 1975 to 2015 in five-year intervals. The black diamonds depict the average score in the given year across all countries; the horizontal black lines describe the quantiles.

We can clearly identify a significant strengthening of citizens’ civil liberties and political rights. For example, in 1975 more than half of all countries were rated 5 or worse in political rights and only one-quarter received a score of 3 or better, but this situation reversed dramatically: in 2015, only about one-quarter received a rating of 5 or worse and almost half of all countries were rated 3 or better (one-quarter was even rated 2 or better). The average in both rankings also decreased by more than one point between 1975 and 2005 (also between 1975 and 2015). More recently, averages slightly increased again, but at least the median for political rights in 2015 shows that this might primarily be due to some extreme cases rather than an overall retreat of democracy.

FHIIndicatorDevel

Source: Own calculation based on FHI data (1975-2015)

Of course, reducing the very broad spectrum of real-world government types to a few (more or less distinct) regime categories simplifies the issue and many interesting questions remain unanswered. One of these questions is, for example, whether ‘multiparty regimes’ – which technically still are authoritarian regimes – have become more democratic since 1990. I try to provide an initial answer to this question below by looking at the size of the majority that the governing party enjoys in the country’s legislative assembly. This offers a relatively good indication of the level of political contestation (openness of the political system and electoral competitiveness) in the country as well as of the strength of the domestic opposition. A lot has been written on the emergence of ‘electoral authoritarian regimes‘ or ‘competitive authoritarianism‘, but this post is not a (good) literature review.

[Also see below for figures on regime development in Africa.]

Continue reading “Global Trends in Regime Development and Democratisation”

Global Trends in Regime Development and Democratisation

An Example of the Successful Use of Export Taxes and Its Value for North-South Trade Negotiations

A recurring problem in the discussion on North-South trade relations is identifying good examples that show how controversial – trade-distorting – policy instruments are successfully used to promote economic development. The search is not a purely academic exercise as the case studies can be used to legitimise and defend policy tools in trade negotiations aimed at outlawing or restricting their domestic application. Export duties, i.e., taxes imposed upon the export of raw materials, are one of these instruments and the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the European Union and developing countries are one attempt at circumscribing their use.

Because export taxes can be used to ensure a price advantage to domestic industries and therefore skew international competition – a good example are Chinese duties on the export of rare earth minerals – or enrich a small authoritarian elite, their use is actively discouraged by many industrialised countries. However, export taxes can also incentivise producers/exporters to process raw materials domestically into higher-value goods or components (that can be exported without additional charges). If used correctly, export taxes can thus promote the economic development and industrialisation of developing countries. Existing WTO rules do not discipline Members’ application of export taxes and only few countries have agreed to binding constraints on the use of export taxes during their WTO accession.

The EPAs between the EU and regional groups made up of African, Carribean and Pacific countries would limit the ability of governments to use export taxes considerably. For example, Article 13.1 of the EPA between the EU and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) declares: “No new duties or taxes on exports or charges with equivalent effect shall be introduced, nor shall those currently applied in trade between the Parties be increased from the date of entry into force of this Agreement.” According to Article 13.3, African members can impose export charges only “in exceptional circumstances, on a temporary basis and after consulting the European Union Party […] and with equivalent effect” of existing export charges.

But can export taxes be effective in promoting economic development? And if so, are there good examples that should discourage us from restricting their use? A brief look at the development of the Ethiopian leather industry suggests some benefits from the use of export taxes:

In February 2008, Ethiopia introduced a 150 percent tax on the export of raw and semi-processed animal hides and skins. This was meant as an instrument to encourage industries engaged in the preparation of raw hides and skins for export to shift to more advanced processing stages. Consequently, exports in raw hides and skins dropped significantly in 2009 and remained low, but exports in processed goods (“tanned or crust hides and skins”) almost doubled until 2011. In 2012, the Ethiopian government added a further 150 percent tax on the export of crust leather, i.e., leather that has been tanned, dyed and dried, but not finished. Again, this resulted in a signficant drop in exports of the affected products and the transformation of the leather industry to perform more advanced tasks in country.

The figure below summarises this development. It is based on data collected by the International Trade Centre for product group 41 (raw & semi-raw leather) and product group 42 (manufactured leather products). In Figure 1, I aggregate the different product types into four categories: (i) “raw hides” describes the most basic products, i.e., raw hides and skins (HS 4-digit: 4101-4103); (ii) “tanned hides” constitutes tanned or crust hides and skins” (HS 4-digit: 4104-4106); (iii) “prepared leather” represents more advanced leather processing (HS 4-digit: 4107-4113); and (iv) “manufactured leather products” are all finished leather products in product group 42.

Figure 1 – Ethiopian leather exports to all trade partners

EthiopiaExportsToWorld

Source: own calculation based on ITC data

Overall, the most drastic changes in the distribution of exports seem to occur in close temporal connection with the introduction of export taxes, as indicated by the two dashed vertical lines. The quick second transformation of exports in tanned hides to prepared leather from 2011 to 2012 suggests that the creation of this tax was better communicated and affected industries anticipated the costs. In addition, the adoption of this final processing step might have been much less demanding than the initial transformation. In parallel, exports in manufactured (finished) leather products started to increase from 2011. The same effects are visible in the trade relationship with the EU, see Figure 2.

These findings suggest that export taxes were used effectively to transform the Ethiopian leather sector from an industry focused on the preparation of raw skins to more advanced processing stages, while increasing the overall value of exports and encouraging the production of finished products. Of course, it is likely that other factors such as the growth in external demand, foreign investment and other policy interventions affected the transformation. The magnitude of the effects and temporal connection nevertheless suggest a considerable (positive) effect of the exports taxes on the economic development of the Ethiopian leather industry.

Trade agreements that are too restrictive of this and similar policy instruments might thus undermine national development strategies in the long run. Thus, it will be crucial for all members to the EPAs, the EU and its partners, to actively use review clauses such as Article 13.4 of the ECOWAS-EPA, which allow for regular reality-checks and revisions to the agreements “taking full account of their impact on the development and diversification of the economy of the West Africa Party” or other developing partners.

Figure 2 – Ethiopian leather exports to the European Union

EthiopiaExportsToEU

Source: own calculation based on ITC data

A brief addition:

Below I complement my assessment of the impact of export taxes on Ethiopian leather exports by also including exports of shoes with a leather component. These products are included in product category 64 (footwear), so I select all shoes with some leather content based on the HS 6-digit level. (This equals all product lines in category 6403, as well as line 640420 and 640510.)

I find that exports of leather shoes broadly mirror the growth rate in exports of other more advanced leather products. Ethiopian exports in shoes with leather content consequently increased specifically between 2011 and 2013, i.e., the time period where the government introduced export taxes on processed leather. This correlation, which also can be observed for the exports of other finished leather products, suggests that export taxes may have encouraged the domestic production of more advanced leather products.

Figure 3 – Ethiopian leather exports to all trade partners (incl. leather shoes)

EthiopiaExportsToWorldwithShoes

Source: own calculation based on ITC data

Ethiopia also recovered from the slight decrease in the exports of leather shoes after 2013 in 2016, when exports more than doubled to about $39 million.

An Example of the Successful Use of Export Taxes and Its Value for North-South Trade Negotiations

External Intervention to Strengthen Democracy in Africa

Although more competitive forms of authoritarianism and electoral democracy are today prevalent in most African countries, democratisation has slowed and in some places reversed. This coincides with an ever-growing rift between African citizens who are demanding further democratic rights and rulers who want to preserve their prerogatives. Western actors need to support those who hold the greatest democratic aspirations more fervently: African citizens themselves.

Read more in our most recent GIGA Focus Africa in English and German. This is an outcome of a joint project with Dr. Christian von Soest at the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA).

  • Western support has contributed to democratic development in Africa via two channels. First, political conditionality and “democratic sanctions” have increased the costs for leaders who severely infringe human and democratic rights. Second, Western intervention has helped to increase citizens’ awareness and their opposition to their regimes. Yet, the effect of external intervention has clear limits: no African country that has been subject to Western democratic sanctions since 1990 has become fully democratic.
  • Despite the discussions about a specific African variant of democracy – for instance, one which places greater emphasis on traditional authorities – the majority of African citizens support the procedural tenets of liberal democracy and universal human rights. This sentiment largely holds across countries with different levels of democracy and with varying exposure to external intervention.
  • The majority of Africans consider local elites to be primarily responsible for democratic progress; Africans value national sovereignty more highly than regional responsibility. In particular, the absence of one specific African democratic model and African citizens’ high regard for national sovereignty renders context-sensitive external support all the more important.

Policy Implications

Seen against the rise of China and other authoritarian powers, Western influence is declining in relative terms. However, Western countries still have an important role to play in supporting democracy in Africa. Western assistance should be citizen-centred and involve consistent support for civic education and common training programmes for young leaders across the political divide.

This is what Christian von Soest and I find in our most recent GIGA Focus Africa available in English and German

External Intervention to Strengthen Democracy in Africa